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动力锂电池拐点:热烫三元正极材料

发布时间:2016-11-15
    进入2016年至今,中国锂电三元正极材料的价格涨势在持续年半有余之后,仍在保持每月刷新纪录的畅旺状态。
  最新的数据显示,受到上游原材料镍、钴资源影响,由于刚果政策性影响导致钴矿出口量及产量下滑,使中国钴金属在2016年全年处于上涨趋势,截止2017年2月份电解钴价格已涨至30万/吨,同比2016年初已上涨10万/吨,因此大幅度拉动中国三元材料及钴酸锂价格上升。截止2月8日,动力型三元材料523目前价格为15.5~16万元/吨,对比年底上涨达0.8~1万元/吨。
  在此之前,有研究机构调研统计数据显示,2016年中国正极材料产值208亿元,同比2015年增长超过54%,2016年正极材料产量持续增长及材料价格上涨,使正极材料产值增速大于产量增速。国内三元材料、磷酸铁锂、锰酸锂等正极材料市场规模同比增速超过70%,其中三元材料市场规模接近80亿元。
  受此带动,众多锂电材料企业纷纷加码三元正极材料产能,仅最近三个月就相继有国轩高科、厦门钨业等上市公司发布公告称,拟投资扩产车用锂电三元正极材料产能。
  有心人不难找到三元正极材料价格上涨的原因:“有需求”(新能源汽车需求高涨)、“有产业”(新能源汽车及其相关产业)和“有政策”(新能源汽车补贴),这也是近年来持续支撑锂电相关材料走势的基本面。
  量价齐飞
  相关市场反馈的信息可知,春节前后三元锂电材料大幅上涨,如上游硫酸钴2月8日价格为68元/千克,较节前上涨20%,今年以来硫酸钴价格累计涨幅超过30%。
  更有研究机构预计,2017年电解钴价格将持续增长至400000元/吨区间,钴酸锂价格预计增长至330000元/吨左右,增长幅度30%以上。
  这些都是制造锂电三元正极材料的原料。
  在这一切的背后,中国新能源汽车的高速发展为其做出了最好的背书。
  商务部数据显示,2016年,我国汽车销售市场再度出现两位数增长。2016年全年,汽车销量达到2802.8万辆,同比增长13.7%,已经连续8年蝉联全球第一并再创历史新高。其中新能源车的发展迅猛,全年销量超过50万,同比增长53%,与此同时,去年我国新能源汽车销量也超过美国成为全球第一。
  新材料在线查阅相关数据显示,目前,中国新能源汽车保有量已经接近100万辆。
  中国汽车工业协会副秘书长许艳华近日在接受媒体采访时更表示,2017年我国新能源汽车市场将继续保持快速增长,预计市场销量在80万辆左右。
  数据显示,2016年全国正极材料产量16.16万吨,同比2015年增长43%。正极材料产值208亿元,同比2015年增长超过54%;其中三元材料产量5.43万吨,同比增长49%,三元材料市场规模接近80亿元。
  正极材料的产销两旺,尤其是三元材料的旺盛需求让多家正极材料企业不断扩产,且有多家新进入者涉足正极材料及上游原材料。
  2016年11月,国轩高科公告称,为推进国家新能源汽车产业发展,满足新能源汽车快速增长的市场需求,公司拟加快动力电池业务布局。
  其中,国轩高科拟使用募集资金5亿元投建年产10000吨高镍三元正极材料和5000吨硅基负极材料产业化项目。项目总投资6.54亿元,建设周期12个月,项目完成后,将形成年产10000吨高镍三元正极材料及年产5000吨硅基负极材料的产能。
  “公司新一代三元正极材料产线已开工建设,预计2017年度投产,届时公司将完成高比能量三元正极材料的自给。”国轩高科副总经理马桂富近日在接受机构投资者调研时表示,公司在完善上游产业链的同时,助推三元动力电池的技术升级,届时公司三元电池能量密度将进一步提升10%达到195-200wh/kg。
  2017年1月,厦门钨业公告,公司拟由全资子公司厦门厦钨新能源材料有限公司与福建乐虎游戏国际公司在宁德市合资成立宁德厦钨新能源材料有限公司,共同投资建设年产2万吨的车用锂离子三元材料生产线,主要生产销售高镍三元材料。
  厦门钨业方面表示,鉴于目前车用锂离子三元材料市场正处于快速成长期,公司通过本次投资扩大高镍三元材料产能,将满足客户日益增长的需求,将为今后几年的锂电发展打下良好的基础。
  正极材料多路径
  正极材料是锂电池中最为关键的原材料,正负极材料是决定动力电池性能的关键。正极材料主要影响锂离子电池能量密度、安全性、循环寿命等性能。由于锂离子电池正极材料在电池成本中所占比例可高达40%左右,所以其成本也直接决定电池成本的高低。
  锂离子电池分为多种技术路线,其中主流的技术路线包括钴酸锂(LCO)、锰酸锂(LMO),镍钴锰酸锂三元材料(NCM)、镍钴铝酸锂三元材料(NCA)和磷酸铁锂(LFP)。
  常见正极材料及性能比较
  资料来源:赛瑞研究
  目前,市场上主流新能源汽车的动力电池正极材料的选择也以三元材料、锰酸锂和磷酸铁锂为主。在动力电池领域,磷酸铁锂正极材料拥有超长的循环寿命、极好的安全性能、较好的高温性能和相对低廉的价格,并且磷酸铁锂材料其低温性能和倍率放电已经可以达到钴酸锂的水平,目前是市场上主流的动力电池材料的,但由于能量密度的缺陷,同时其产品一致性和低温性能差,正在逐步被三元材料取代。
  “磷酸铁锂在能量密度、容量、压实等方面还有很大的上升空间,磷酸铁锂在安全性方面的优势很大。”斯特兰总经理李士祥表示。
  三元材料综合了钴酸锂、镍酸锂和锰酸锂等正极材料的优点,兼具能量密度高、循环寿命较长、安全性较好、成本相对较低等特点。有数据显示,目前中国动力电池正极材料三元占比在30%左右。
  新能源汽车产量大幅提升,带动动力电池需求快速增长,作为动力电池主要正极材料,磷酸铁锂和三元材料需求量增长迅速。赛瑞研究统计数据显示,2015年,中国磷酸铁锂和三元材料产量分别达到3.24万吨和3.65万吨,分别同比增长131.4%和72.2%。2016年中国磷酸铁锂和三元材料产量分别达到5.3万吨和5.2万吨,分别同比增长63.58%和45.21%。
  近日,近日,A123、万向一二三更是获得上汽通用价值超过10亿美元新订单——260万套48伏超级磷酸铁锂电池。
  磷酸铁锂龙头比亚迪近期在接受机构投资者调研时也表示,三元电池和磷酸铁锂电池各有优缺点,因此不能说一种会电池技术替代另一种电池技术,两者之间是动态变化的。以目前状态来说,因为充电设施并不是那么的完善,消费者对于新能源车续航里程和电池的能量密度相对敏感,三元电池因为能量密度高而更被消费者喜欢和选择。
  淘汰赛开场 高镍三元材料大机会
  中国新能源汽车的飞速发展,带来了动力锂电池的旺盛需求。市场发展初期,在政策的刺激下,所有材料都有机会,当市场趋于成熟,能够继续生存的只是极少数。
  随着三元材料在动力领域安全性逐步成熟,以及消费市场对于续航里程的需求提升,在能量密度上具有显著优势的高镍三元材料电池被市场普遍看好,成为众多动力电池企业的研究热点。
  “高镍三元是必由之路。”金瑞新材副总经理、湖南长远锂科有限公司董事长兼总经理胡柳全告诉新材料在线,长远锂科正加紧扩充三元材料产能,预计2017年新增三元产能1.3万吨到1.5万吨。
  当升科技董秘曲晓力在接待机构投资者时也表示,公司的高镍多元材料从去年开始批量供货以来,市场需求非常好,目前公司高镍多元材料产能已经供不应求。国际客户用高镍材料已经有相当比例了,国内客户已经使用、正在测试或计划用高镍材料的企业也越来越多。
  2016年11月22日,工信部发布《汽车动力电池行业规范条件》(征求意见稿)(简称“行业规范”),将动力电池企业门槛大幅提高,其中锂离子动力电池单体企业年产能从此前的“不低于2亿瓦时”大幅调高为“不低于80亿瓦时”。同时科技部发布的“2016-2020”新能源汽车试点专项,对纯电动力系统的续驶里程提出了最低300公里以上的考核标准。相比之下,目前电动汽车续驶里程普遍在150公里左右。
  有业内人士表示,三元电池能量密度提升空间要大于磷酸铁锂。要达到国家对于动力电池的新要求,未来电池正极材料要走三元材料的路线。
  “从车厂的角度也是倾向于用高镍材料的,负极材料、电解液、隔膜、电池管理系统等的使用量与正极材料是相匹配的,使用高镍材料正极材料用量可能只减少了几公斤,但其他材料和电池管理系统的总重量可能就减少了几十公斤,车的自重减少,其他材料成本降低,而且电池数量会相应减少,电池管理系统的复杂性相应降低,综合效应明显。”曲晓力表示,国家最新的客车补贴标准也从过去单一的车辆长度逐步向车辆单位载质量能量消耗量和续航里程过渡。因此新能源汽车选用能量密度高、续航里程远、自重轻的动力电池是必然趋势。公司高镍多元材料正是满足这一趋势的产品。
  市场的需求几大催热了高镍三元材料的扩产投资。
  “市场发展巨大,但不是所有企业都有机会,有资源才有定价权。”胡柳全认为,未来未来拥有矿产、先进的技术同时资金实力雄厚的企业才能生存发展。
  由新材料行业门户+媒体+智库+创业服务+科技服务平台新材料在线?主办、国内首家材料解决方案一站式服务平台寻材问料?协办的2016(第二届)中国好材料·锂电正极材料行业评选为国内正极材料企业做大做强提供了良好平台。
  中国好材料大型系列评选活动是面向新材料行业最具专业性、影响力和代表性的评选活动之一。此次评选活动客观全面地展示中国新材料企业形象、最新成果及行业人气。

  据了解,2016(第二届)中国好材料·锂电正极材料行业评选历时三个月圆满收官,本次评选盘点了2016年度锂电正极材料行业大事件,客观全面地展示正极材料企业形象、研发成果及行业人气,以公正的立场、权威的数据、科学的评价以及行业用户投票产生榜单。

    本文摘自《中国有色网》

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[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: p FbaseAction.class.php 第 270 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: p FbaseAction.class.php 第 270 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: p FbaseAction.class.php 第 270 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: p FbaseAction.class.php 第 270 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: p FbaseAction.class.php 第 270 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: p FbaseAction.class.php 第 270 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: p FbaseAction.class.php 第 270 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: p FbaseAction.class.php 第 270 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: p FbaseAction.class.php 第 270 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.001088s SQL = SHOW COLUMNS FROM m_comment
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000269s SQL = SELECT COUNT(*) AS tp_count FROM `m_comment` WHERE newsid =346 and status=1 LIMIT 1
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: content FcontentAction.class.php 第 146 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000401s SQL = SELECT * FROM `m_comment` WHERE newsid =346 and status=1 ORDER BY id desc
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000911s SQL = SHOW COLUMNS FROM m_content
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000598s SQL = SELECT * FROM `m_content` WHERE `cid` < 346 and `status` = 9 and `catid`=13 ORDER BY cid desc LIMIT 1
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000483s SQL = SELECT * FROM `m_content` WHERE `cid` > 346 and `status` = 9 and `catid`=13 ORDER BY cid asc LIMIT 1
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8] Undefined index: catid %%DE^DE2^DE23D0DB%%news_detail.html.php 第 7 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.001111s SQL = SHOW COLUMNS FROM m_category
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000108s SQL = SELECT * FROM `m_category` WHERE ( `catid` = 13 ) LIMIT 1
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000782s SQL = SHOW COLUMNS FROM m_nav_pos
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8192] mysql_escape_string(): This function is deprecated; use mysql_real_escape_string() instead. DbMysql.class.php 第 400 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000104s SQL = SELECT * FROM `m_nav_pos` WHERE ( `identify` = 'pc_top' ) LIMIT 1
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.001220s SQL = SHOW COLUMNS FROM m_nav
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000149s SQL = SELECT * FROM `m_category` WHERE ( `catid` = 13 ) LIMIT 1
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] NOTIC: [8192] mysql_escape_string(): This function is deprecated; use mysql_real_escape_string() instead. DbMysql.class.php 第 400 行.
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:14+08:00 ] SQL: RunTime:0.000123s SQL = SELECT * FROM `m_nav_pos` WHERE ( `identify` = 'pc_top' ) LIMIT 1
[ 2021-10-08T16:03:15+08:00 ] NOTIC: [2] file_put_contents(/home/wwwroot/scysgroup/public_html/public/html/Fcontent/news_detail__13_346.html): failed to open stream: Permission denied HtmlCache.class.php 第 110 行.
加载文件 : 101
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